Samsung is expected to lose its global smartphone shipment crown to Apple for the first time in 14 years, according to Counterpoint Research.
They expect Samsung to fail to reclaim the top position of the top-selling smartphone brand from Apple from 2025 through 2029 as they face increasing competition from Apple and Chinese OEMs.
The research firm has been tracking Apple’s smartphone shipments throughout 2025, and Apple has performed strongly, particularly in Q3. They forecast Apple to reach a global share of 19.4%, which will make them the number one smartphone OEM for the first time since 2011. Samsung is expected to grow 4.6% YoY to clinch a global share of 18.7%, dropping to second place.
According to Counterpoint, iPhone shipments in Q3 2025 “exceeded expectations” with a 9% YoY growth. This was thanks to the release of the iPhone 17 series, which are typically released during this period. Counterpoint’s data shows that the sales of the 17 in the US were 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series, 18% higher in China, and 7% higher in Japan.
Apple is expected to be the leader throughout the end of the decade thanks to rebounding shipments, expectation of the first foldable iPhone, and expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, which includes their ‘e’ series.
Back to Samsung, they are expected to grow by 5% which is supported by a resilient supply chain. In addition, their A series is expected to strengthen their momentum in markets like Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and India.
Samsung took the top mobile OEM spot from Nokia many years ago, and for a while now, they have seemed to be invincible in losing the top crown. However, in the last few quarters, we have seen Apple take the top spot in shipments, but Samsung managed to ship more at the end of the tracking period. In addition, we have seen the rise of Transsion (which owns iTel, TECNO, Infinix, Oraimo & Carlcare), which is exerting pressure on Xiaomi, OPPO, viv,o and Samsung, so this space will be interesting to watch out for.
